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On Thursday, the Golden State Warriors officially acquired 7’2″ center Kristaps Porzingis from the Atlanta Hawks for Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield.
Porzingis is expected to make his debut on Monday.
What should the Warriors’ starting lineup and rotation look like following the trade?
I cover that and more in the minutes distribution prediction below.
Starters (First 5 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs)
Lineup: Steph, Melton, Moody, Green, Porzingis
Porzingis is averaging just 24.3 minutes per game this season, and Melton continues to be on a minutes restriction of about 25 minutes, so it’s not obvious that this should be the starting lineup.
But you can rarely go wrong by playing your five best healthy players, which is what the Warriors are doing here.
Porzingis and Draymond Green will make a fascinating frontcourt pairing. Green has rarely played with a center who has Porzingis’ shot-blocking prowess (1.9 blocks per 36 minutes), and Porzingis’ three-point shooting should give more space for Green and Stephen Curry to operate in the two-man game.
Next 4 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs
Lineup: Steph, Podz, Richard, Santos, Horford
Substitutions: Podz for Melton, Richard for Moody, Santos for Green, Horford for Porzingis
The Warriors essentially have no healthy small forwards after Jimmy Butler’s injury, which means some combination of Moses Moody (6’5″), Brandin Podziemski (6’4″) and Will Richard (6’3″) will play those minutes even though they are undersized.
In this lineup, Podz and Richard are interchangable at the 2 and 3 on the defensive end.
Gui Santos and Green are the only two natural 4s on the roster, so they will be checking in for each other throughout the game.
Last 3 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs
Lineup: Spencer, Melton, Moody, Santos, Horford
Substitutions: Spencer for Steph, Melton for Podz, Moody for Richard
Spencer will be playing all of the non-Steph point guard minutes.
I’m purposely keeping Melton and Moody together. Their lineups have a plus-26.8 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass.
With that said, one could argue the Warriors should stagger their minutes because they are the team’s two best on-ball defenders.
First 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs
Lineup: Steph, Podz, Richard, Green, Porzingis
Substitutions: Steph for Spencer, Podz for Melton, Richard for Moody, Green for Santos, Porzingis for Horford
If Melton and Moody are going to play virtually all their minutes together, then Podz and Richard would play virtually all their minutes together as well. That could work well, as the Podz-Richard lineups have a plus-4.9 rating this season.
Green is also intentionally kept with Steph. Green-without-Steph lineups have a minus-9.9 net rating, but Green-with-Steph lineups are plus-5.8.
Next 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs
Lineup: Spencer, Podz, Richard, Santos, Horford
Spencer for Steph, Santos for Green, Horford for Porzingis
Spencer plays his first stint with Melton and Moody and this stint with Podz and Richard.
Lineups with Spencer, Melton and Moody have a plus-22.9 net rating, while lineups with Spencer, Podz and Richard have a stunningly good plus-41.0 net rating.
We’ll see if those lineups can continue to win their minutes without Butler and over a longer sample size.
Last 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs
Lineup: Steph, Melton, Moody, Green, Porzingis
Substitutions: Steph for Spencer, Melton for Podz, Moody for Richard, Green for Santos, Porzingis for Horford
We go back to the starters here, though it should be noted that this lineup could easily be changed to include someone else if they were having a great game.
Curry will probably close every game, but I could see Spencer or Podz for Melton, Richard for Moody, Santos for Green or Horford for Porzingis.
Final Minutes Distribution
Curry: 34
Green: 26
Porzingis: 26
Melton: 24
Moody: 24
Podz: 24
Richard: 24
Santos: 22
Horford: 22
Spencer: 14
Final Thoughts
The biggest omission is Quinten Post. He’s a restricted free agent in the offseason, and he’s likely part of the Warriors’ long-term plans considering Porzingis and Horford are likely to be free agents this offseason.
With how often Porzingis and Horford could be either a) needing a rest day or b) out due to an injury, this issue will probably take care of itself. Post will play almost every game.
The only other omissions are Gary Payton II and Seth Curry. Both will play as injury replacements, but otherwise they shouldn’t see the court much. The Warriors have to prioritize the development of Moody, Podz and Richard, so the two veteran guards are likely to get a number of healthy DNPs.