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The Oklahoma City Thunder have had an amazing trade deadline so far. And the best part is they haven’t even made a trade.
We might remember Tuesday as the day the Thunder gained two lottery picks in this year’s draft.
The James Harden trade? Great for the Thunder, because they own the LA Clippers’ unprotected 2026 first-round pick.
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Right now, the Clippers own the No. 9 seed in the West playoff chase after rebounding from an abysmal 6-21 start. They just traded their second-best player, Harden, for Darius Garland, who has been hurt for large swaths of this season and, when healthy, has not been as good as Harden.
While the Clippers still seem likely to make the Play-In Tournament, given the issues with the teams below them in the standings, losing Harden certainly decreases their chances of making the playoffs proper, which would make them a lottery team. They have the 12th-worst record in the league right now. The odds are slim that the Clippers would end up with a top-four pick (7.1 percent, to be specific) but did you see the way the lottery balls bounced last year? The Dallas Mavericks moved up from the 11th spot to win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, while the Utah Jazz, who had the worst record in the league, ended up with the No. 5 pick because a number of other teams jumped over them from outside the top four.
Speaking of the Jazz, they seem to be tired of trying their luck with the lottery Gods, because they sent three first-round picks and more to Memphis to acquire Jaren Jackson Jr. And the Thunder have to be loving the audacious move by a 16-35 Jazz team that holds the sixth-worst record in the NBA. Remember: Oklahoma City also owns Utah’s first-round pick if it falls outside the top eight.
In a tank race that promises to be as competitive — if not more competitive — as the playoff chase, it’s possible that Utah could improve with Jackson over the rest of the season and be passed in the lottery standings. Dallas is only 3.5 games better than the Jazz right now, while Memphis and Milwaukee are 4.5 games ahead. The Bucks might trade Giannis Antetokounmpo — and could tumble in the standings even if they don’t because of Antetokounmpo’s calf injury. The Grizzlies, of course, just traded their best player to Utah and might still offload Ja Morant as well. So those standings are certainly subject to change.
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If Utah starts winning more games with Jackson, the Thunder have a significantly better chance of profiting.
Executives around the NBA recognize this dynamic and were already asking yesterday how and if Utah would try to ensure it finishes poorly enough to keep its pick. It’s a valuable one in a strong draft. The Jazz’s incentives are strongly in favor of protecting the pick, however they do it — and the franchise has deployed some, ummm, shrewd maneuvering in past seasons to maintain its lottery positioning.
Utah’s problem is that if the Jazz start playing Jackson — who has suited up for 30 of Memphis’ past 31 games — they might start winning. That’s what happens when you add a former All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year. Call it an occupational hazard of the trade.
Whatever the Jazz do, the Thunder will be watching closely. It is a classic case of the rich getting richer.
By the way, Oklahoma City also owns the Philadelphia 76ers’ first-round pick this spring, which is slated to be in the top 20 at the moment. It’s a lot for a team that can’t even fit that many rookies on its talented roster.
This state of affairs allows the Thunder to be the giant that lurks quietly while pondering its choices before Thursday afternoon’s trade deadline. They can make a deal if they want, with all of those assets at their disposal and a very smart front office pushing the buttons. Though, again, they are the defending champions with a young roster and the best record in the NBA.
Or, they can just sit back and watch to see how their portfolio improves. They’ve already had a great week and haven’t had to lift a finger.