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You can root for the Seattle Seahawks at this year’s Super Bowl. You can root for the New England Patriots. But if you’re an investor, what you really should be rooting for is an offensive battle.
A tongue-in-cheek study from S&P Global $SPGI Market Intelligence finds that when the Super Bowl teams score a combined 47 points or more, the S&P 500 posts an average annual return of 17.8%. When the totals are lower, the gain is just 6.6%.
We could use the higher score, since this is an even-year for the championship games. When the number at the end of the Super Bowl (i.e. Super Bowl LX, this year’s game) is even, the average S&P return is 7.8%. Odd-numbered years have a better track record, averaging 16.6% returns.
If you’re agnostic about which team wins, you might be better off rooting for the Seahawks, the study suggests. The market performs better, generally, when an NFC team wins the game (13.4% annual return vs. 11.1%). The NFC rides the extremes, though, with both the higher annual return (27.6% in 1995 when the 49er beat the Chargers 49-26) and the worst annual return (a 37% drop in 2008 after the Giants beat the Patriots, ruining New England’s perfect season in a late fourth quarter comeback).
If you want to go even further into the weeds with Super Bowl superstitions, S&P Global Market Intelligence says that when Super Bowls are held in California, the average return on the market index is 13.2% (and 12% when held at Levi’s Stadium). That’s better than any other spot west of the Mississippi, but not as good as those along the East Coast, which average a return of 14.4%.
Of course, there’s not a hard science to these numbers. The S&P 500 doesn’t rise or fall based on the NFL, game locations or even amazing commercials during the game. S&P Global warns people that these historical averages shouldn’t be the basis of any investment decision. After all, as any financial advisor will tell you, past performance is not indicative of future results. But it’s still fun to have something to root for.