Bitcoin to $58,000? Galaxy Digital’s Research Head Sees More Weakness Ahead

Key Takeaways

• Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn warns Bitcoin could slide toward $58,000.
• Nearly half of Bitcoin’s supply is currently underwater, raising capitulation risk.
• The 200-week moving average near $58,000 remains a historically critical support level.

Bitcoin’s long-awaited rebound is failing to materialize — and Galaxy Digital is sounding the alarm.

With BTC struggling to hold ground near $78,000, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn, says the market may not be done falling.

In a recent assessment, Thorn warned that Bitcoin could drift lower toward the $58,000 region, a move that would represent a deep but historically familiar correction.

Despite improving conditions in equities and commodities, Bitcoin has failed to regain bullish momentum. Instead, technical weakness and fragile investor sentiment are beginning to dominate the narrative.

Bitcoin Could Crash to $58,000

According to Thorn , Bitcoin’s current drawdown fits a broader pattern of cc rather than a clean trend reversal.

He argues that BTC could continue drifting lower over the coming weeks or months, eventually testing the 200-week moving average (MA).

At the time of writiing BTC was hovering just below $58,000.

Bitcoin recently slipped below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, underscoring growing risk aversion across global markets.

While traditional assets have shown early signs of stabilization, BTC has lagged behind, unable to reclaim key resistance levels.

This marks a notable shift from Galaxy Digital’s longer-term optimism. The firm previously projected Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2027, while characterizing 2026 as “too chaotic to predict” due to AI-driven capital flows, shifting monetary policy, and political uncertainty tied to U.S. elections.

In the near term, however, Thorn sees mounting downside risk.

Why the 200-Week MA Matters

The 200-week moving average (MA), sitting around $57,926–$58,000, has historically acted as Bitcoin’s ultimate bear-market floor.

It marked cycle lows in 2015, 2018, and 2022 — making it one of the most closely watched long-term indicators in crypto.

Another closely aligned metric, Bitcoin’s realized price, currently sits near $56,000.

This level reflects the average on-chain cost basis of all BTC and has often served as a high-conviction accumulation zone for long-term investors.

Taken together, these indicators suggest that if Bitcoin continues to weaken, the $58,000 region could act as a magnet for price action rather than an outlier scenario.

Nearly Half of Bitcoin Supply Is Underwater

One of the most concerning signals is the growing share of holders sitting on losses.

Roughly 46% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now underwater, meaning nearly half of all BTC was acquired at prices above current levels.

This creates a structural risk: prolonged weakness could push some holders to capitulate, adding selling pressure during any further decline.

Compounding the issue is a thin liquidity zone between $70,000 and $80,000.

With limited historical trading activity in this range, price moves can accelerate quickly when support breaks — especially in volatile conditions.

Bitcoin’s Hedge Narrative Is Cracking

Bitcoin’s recent behavior has also undermined one of its core investment theses.

BTC has decoupled from gold and silver, assets traditionally viewed as inflation hedges.

This breakdown weakens the “digital gold” narrative and has dented investor confidence at a time when macro uncertainty should theoretically favor Bitcoin.

Options markets reflect this uncertainty.

Current pricing implies nearly equal odds of BTC trading near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, highlighting how divided sentiment has become.

Not Everyone Is Bearish

Despite the caution, not all analysts see a prolonged downturn ahead.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently suggested Bitcoin could dip to $58,000 before launching a powerful rally toward $200,000, framing the move as a corrective phase rather than the end of the bull market.

Other analysts point out that Bitcoin has rarely spent extended periods below the 200-week MA.

Historically, dips toward this level have preceded some of the strongest rallies in BTC’s history.

A Painful Drop — or a Long-Term Opportunity?

Thorn’s warning doesn’t necessarily spell doom for BTC — but it does suggest traders should brace for turbulence.

If support fails, Bitcoin could face a 25% or greater drawdown from current levels. ‘ For short-term traders, that’s a clear risk. For long-term investors, however, history suggests such moments have often marked high-conviction entry points.

Whether Bitcoin finds a floor soon or slides deeper toward $58,000, the coming months may prove decisive for the next phase of the cycle.